Deebo Samuel: Fantasy Bust Risk in Week 11?

Introduction

The Washington Commanders' offense faces an uphill battle in Week 11, and star wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. finds himself in a precarious fantasy football position. Despite his explosive reputation, Samuel's production has become increasingly volatile amid injuries to key teammates and a challenging matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

The Current Situation in Washington

Samuel's fantasy value is heavily dependent on the Commanders' offensive health, which has taken a significant hit. With starting quarterback Jayden Daniels (shoulder) and top target Terry McLaurin sidelined, veteran backup Marcus Mariota is under center. During Week 10's 44-22 loss to the Lions, the Commanders attempted only 22 passes, severely limiting Samuel's opportunities. He finished with just 4 receptions for 29 yards and a lone touchdown – a score that saved what would otherwise have been a disastrous fantasy outing. This marked his fourth straight game with fewer than 45 receiving yards, raising serious concerns about his consistency.

Why the Dolphins Pose a Threat

On paper, the Dolphins' defense might seem like a favorable matchup, but recent trends tell a different story. Miami has been a fortress against the pass, allowing 13 or fewer points to opposing receivers in two of their last three games. They've also held teams under 200 passing yards in three of their last four contests. This defensive prowess, combined with Washington's offensive struggles (point differential of -89 over the last four games), creates a perfect storm for Samuel's fantasy potential to be stifled.

Fantasy Outlook for Week 11

Given the circumstances, Samuel is a high-risk fantasy play in Week 11. Commanders' backups like Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson are dealing with injuries, leaving Samuel as the primary weapon. However, the Dolphins' ability to contain opposing passing attacks and Washington's inability to sustain drives make it unlikely that Samuel can replicate his Week 9 12.9-point performance. Fantasy managers should consider benching Samuel unless they have no viable alternatives, as his upside is severely capped.

Conclusion

While Deebo Samuel Sr. remains a dynamic talent, the stars are misaligned for a strong fantasy showing in Week 11. The combination of injuries, a struggling offense, and a formidable Dolphins defense makes him a prime candidate to underperform. Fantasy owners should temper expectations and explore other options to avoid a critical bust in their lineups.