European World Cup Play-Off Draw: Who's In & What to Expect

European World Cup Play-Off Draw: Path to USA, Canada & Mexico 2026

The European route to the 2026 FIFA World Cup intensifies with a crucial play-off draw set for Thursday, November 20, 2025. With 16 European teams vying for the continent's final four spots, the draw will determine matchups for high-stakes single-legged matches in March 2026. Here's everything you need to know about the drama unfolding.

The Format: Four Paths, Four Spots

Unlike traditional playoffs, UEFA has implemented a unique structure for the expanded 16-team European contingent. The 12 group runners-up are joined by four teams from the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League, competing in four distinct paths. Each path features:

• Two semi-finals: Pot 1 vs Pot 4 and Pot 2 vs Pot 3
• One final between semi-final winners
• All matches are single-legged

The seeded teams based on FIFA rankings host semi-finals, while final hosts will be determined by draw. Semi-finals are scheduled for Thursday, March 26, and finals for Tuesday, March 31, 2026.

Who's In? The 16 Contenders

Confirmed participants include seven group runners-up and three Nations League representatives:

• Group Runners-Up: Albania, Czechia, Italy, Poland, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia, Ukraine
• Nations League Qualifiers: Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland

The final spot hinges on a Group J showdown: Wales vs. North Macedonia. The winner joins as a runner-up; the loser enters as the fourth Nations League representative. Kosovo and Turkey could also secure spots depending on final group results.

Home Nations: Routes and Ramifications

Several UK nations have critical scenarios:

• Wales: Victory over North Macedonia secures automatic qualification or a Pot 2 seeding (home semi-final). A drop sends them to Pot 4 (away semi-final).
• Northern Ireland: Already confirmed in Pot 4 via Nations League, guaranteeing an away semi-final against a Pot 1 team.
• Scotland: Must beat Denmark for automatic qualification. A loss or draw could see them in Pot 2 (home semi-final) or Pot 3 (away), depending on other results.
• Republic of Ireland: Their dramatic late win in Hungary secured a play-off spot, likely in Pot 3, but could climb to Pot 2 with favorable results elsewhere.

Seeding System: Pot Power

Teams are divided into four pots based on FIFA rankings:

• Pot 1: Top 4 seeded EQ teams (e.g., Italy, Turkey)
• Pot 2: Next 4 seeded EQ teams (e.g., Slovakia, Scotland)
• Pot 3: Bottom 4 seeded EQ teams (e.g., Albania, Republic of Ireland)
• Pot 4: 4 unseeded Nations League teams (e.g., Romania, Northern Ireland)

Being in Pot 1 or 2 ensures a home semi-final, crucial for momentum in March.

Beyond Europe: Inter-Confederation Playoffs

While Europe focuses on its 16 spots, two more World Cup berths will be decided through inter-confederation playoffs in March. Six teams including Bolivia and New Caledonia will compete, with the top two FIFA-ranked teams advancing straight to finals.

"The draw starts with Pot 1 and ends with Pot 4. The four play-off paths are formed by allocating teams to specific semi-final positions."
— UEFA Official Statement

What Happens Next?

After the draw on November 20, attention shifts to final World Cup qualifiers on Tuesday, November 25, which will confirm all 16 playoff participants. The March 2026 playoffs will then deliver the final European teams for the expanded 48-nation World Cup in North America.