Hawaii vs Cal Prediction: Hawaii Bowl Picks

Aloha Bowl Showdown: Hawaii Warriors Face Cal Golden Warriors

The 2025 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl promises a Christmas Eve treat for college football fans as the hometown Hawaii Rainbow Warriors host the California Golden Bears in a clash steeped in island history and coaching legacy. Kickoff from the newly renovated Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu is set for 8 p.m. ET, with both teams eager to cap their seasons with a bowl victory.

Matchup Preview

While Cal enters with a 7-5 record after a dramatic 38-35 win over SMU, Hawaii brings an 8-4 mark secured by a dominant 27-7 victory over Wyoming. The Warriors hold a slight edge as 1.5-point favorites, with the sportsbooks projecting a high-scoring affair with the over/under set at 50.5 points. Notably, Hawaii owns a 2-1 all-time series lead, but Cal prevailed 51-21 in their last meeting in 2016.

"College football is better with Hawaii football being better." – Nick Rolovich, Cal Interim Head Coach

QB Duel Under the Lights

Both teams feature explosive passing offenses that could light up the scoreboard. Hawaii's Micah Alejado leads the Mountain West Conference in passing yards per game and has thrown for at least three touchdowns in five of his last seven outings. Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, a native Hawaiian, returns to his home state with momentum after a 330-yard, 4-TD performance against SMU. Sagapolutele's connection to the islands adds emotional weight to his potential showcase.

The Coaching Reunion

The game's most compelling storyline is the reunion of former Hawaii quarterbacks Timmy Chang and Nick Rolovich, now opposing head coaches. Chang, who will make his postseason head-coaching debut in his fifth Hawaii Bowl appearance, emphasized the significance of the moment:

"There are so many things I learned from Rolo... It's truly humbling." – Timmy Chang, Hawaii Head Coach

Rolovich, serving as Cal's interim coach, began his head coaching career against Hawaii in 2000 and ended his tenure with the Warriors in a 2019 Hawaii Bowl. Their shared journey from competing in the run-and-shoot offense to leading programs against each other creates a full-circle narrative:

"To see where it went and how it’s come back... This was not in the cards." – Nick Rolovich

Key Trends & Predictions

SportsLine's advanced model, which has nailed 31-19 top-rated college football money-line picks this season, reveals strong indicators for the game:

• Over 50.5 points: The model projects this outcome in over 50% of simulations, fueled by Hawaii's bowl history (eight of nine Hawaii Bowls exceeded 60 points) and Cal's recent offensive explosions.
• Spread Advantage: One side of the spread is predicted to hit 70% of the time, though the model hasn't disclosed its pick publicly.

What's at Stake

For Hawaii, a bowl victory validates Timmy Chang's four-year rebuild, transforming a 3-10 debut into an 8-4 campaign featuring a Power Five win over Stanford. The senior class, including leaders like Zhen Sotelo and Jalen Smith, embodies the resilience Chang instilled.

Cal seeks its first bowl win since 2019, with Rolovich aiming to energize the program during an interim stint. The game also marks the Warriors' first Hawaii Bowl appearance since 2020, ending a five-year postseason drought.

Final Thoughts

Expect fireworks from both offenses as island pride and coaching legacies collide. While the model favors the Over and a confident spread pick, the real victory may be in the symbolic reunion of Chang and Rolovich on the field where they once battled as teammates. As Rolovich noted, "College football is better with Hawaii football being better" – and this bowl game epitomizes that spirit.