Oregon vs Minnesota Prediction: Ducks Look to Solidify CFP Bid

Friday night lights will shine brightly at Autzen Stadium as the No. 8 Oregon Ducks (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) host the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3, 4-2) in a crucial Week 12 matchup. With College Football Playoff implications on the line, the Ducks aim to extend their winning streak while navigating significant injuries against a Gophers team desperate for an upset.

Key Storylines to Watch

1. Short Week & Injury Woes

Oregon faces a daunting challenge: playing a short week after a grueling 18-16 win at Iowa last Saturday. Coach Dan Lanning’s squad is dealing with significant personnel shortages, particularly on offense. Key contributors like wide receivers Dakorien Moore (knee) and Gary Bryant Jr. (ankle) are ruled out, while right tackle Gernorris Wilson will miss his second consecutive game. This leaves the Ducks with just four scholarship available receivers. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq and offensive lineman Alex Harkey remain questionable, forcing Oregon to rely on its depth and run-heavy approach.

2. The Ground Game Advantage

With limited weapons in the passing game, the Ducks will lean on their dominant rushing attack. Oregon ranks second nationally with 6.36 yards per carry and leads the country with 26 rushes of 20+ yards. Running backs like Jayden Limar and Da’Jaun Riggs will be critical to controlling the clock and wearing down Minnesota’s defense.

"We’ve been creative in the run game to utilize our personnel when it matters,"

3. Minnesota’s Defensive Pressure

The Gophers present a formidable test with their relentless pass rush. Minnesota ranks fourth nationally in sacks (3.6 per game) and sixth in tackles for loss (7.6 per game). Defensive coordinator Tomar Bell’s scheme will test Oregon’s reshuffled offensive line, which must protect quarterback Dante Moore and establish lanes for the running game.

4. Freshman QB Drake Lindsey

Minnesota’s offense is led by redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey, a true passer who has thrown for 1,743 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’ll challenge Oregon’s elite secondary, which has been a strength all season. Lanning praised Lindsey’s ability to "give his wideouts an opportunity to make plays downfield," noting that Minnesota’s vertical passing game could exploit Oregon’s banged-up cornerbacks.

Oregon vs Minnesota Prediction

The SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated over $2,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated college football picks, predicts a high-scoring affair. The model favors the Over on the 44.5-point total (hitting in 70% of simulations), projecting 54 total points. Key projections include:

• Drake Lindsey throwing for 1 touchdown
• Dante Moore passing for 2 TDs and rushing for another
• Minnesota’s defense forcing 1-2 turnovers

While Oregon is a heavy 26.5-point favorite, Minnesota’s ability to pressure Moore and capitalize on short-field opportunities could keep the game closer than expected. However, the Ducks’ home-field advantage (4-1 at Autzen this season) and superior talent should prevail in a 34-17 victory.

What’s at Stake?

For Oregon, a win solidifies their position in the College Football Playoff race. For Minnesota, a road upset would be a massive boost in their quest for a New Year’s Six bowl. With both teams coming off narrow losses to ranked opponents, expect a physical, emotional battle under the Friday night lights.

Final Takeaway

Despite injuries and a short week, Oregon’s explosive run game and home-field advantage should propel them to victory. Minnesota’s pass rush will test the Ducks, but their offense lacks the consistency to keep pace. Expect a defensive-minded affair with Oregon pulling away in the second half.