Thanksgiving 2025: Feast Costs Drop, But Is It Enough?

Thanksgiving 2025 Good News: Lower Costs, But Beware the Fine Print

As families gear up for Thanksgiving 2025, there's welcome news from the grocery aisle: the traditional feast is getting cheaper. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation's (AFBF) annual survey, the average cost to feed 10 people has dipped to $55.18 this year, marking a 5% decrease from 2024 and the third consecutive year of falling prices since the 2022 peak of $64.05.

The primary driver of this relief? Turkey. The price for a 16-pound bird has plummeted by over 16%, settling at $21.50 – the smallest portion of the meal's cost since 2000. Retailers are reportedly absorbing some margin pressure to keep prices down, giving shoppers a break on the centerpiece of the holiday table.

The Caveat: The AFBF's 'Minimalist Feast'

While the headline number is cheerful, it's crucial to understand what the AFBF's $55.18 actually includes. Their 'classic holiday feast' basket is designed as a baseline estimate, not a full-blown celebration meal. Key omissions and limitations include:

• No Mashed Potatoes: Surprisingly, this staple is absent from the calculation.
• Green Bean Casserole Omitted: The beloved side dish is replaced by a 1-pound raw veggie tray of only carrots and celery.
• Scant Portions: Just half a cup of stuffing per person, and only 1 dozen dinner rolls intended for 10 people.
• Petite Portions: A mere 1 pound of frozen peas – enough for about half a typical serving per guest.

Essentially, this budget assumes minimal leftovers and a very pared-down menu. As Axios Richmond notes, this feast might satisfy, but it won't leave anyone reaching for seconds or packing abundant leftovers.

The Reality Check: A More Realistic Thanksgiving Plate

For hosts planning a traditional spread with all the trimmings, the cost will be higher. A Deloitte survey provides a more practical estimate: $76.50 for 8 people when including crowd-pleasers like mashed potatoes and green bean casserole. This highlights the significant gap between the AFBF's baseline and the actual experience most families seek.

Rising Side Dish Costs Challenge the Savings

The turkey price drop masks inflationary pressures elsewhere. Several essential side items have increased in price, reflecting broader agricultural challenges:

• Sweet Potatoes: Prices surged due to Hurricane Helene's devastating impact on North Carolina crops, which supply roughly half the nation's sweet potatoes.
• Fresh Vegetables & Dairy: Costs for items like milk, whipping cream, carrots, and celery climbed, driven by higher expenses for fertilizer, fuel, machinery, labor, and land.
• Frozen Peas: Also saw a price increase.

These hikes mean the true cost of a bountiful, traditional Thanksgiving table will be closer to the Deloitte estimate than the AFBF's headline figure.

Planning Your 2025 Thanksgiving Budget

So, what's the bottom line for your holiday planning? The good news is that turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, and cranberries are genuinely cheaper this year. The bad news is that building a complete feast with generous portions and essential sides like mashed potatoes and green bean casserole will cost more than $55 for 10 people. Use the AFBF figures as a starting point, but factor in the Deloitte estimate when budgeting for your family's ideal Thanksgiving celebration. Focus on deals on the star turkey while keeping an eye on the rising costs of produce and dairy to avoid sticker shock at checkout.

"The turkey price drop masks inflationary pressures elsewhere... a more realistic meal including mashed potatoes and green bean casserole costs $76.50 for eight people."