Thanksgiving 2025 Weather: Polar Vortex Threatens Holiday Travel

Thanksgiving 2025 Weather Forecast: A Challenging Travel Week Ahead

As millions of Americans prepare to travel for Thanksgiving 2025, weather forecasts reveal a challenging week ahead with a polar vortex bringing colder-than-normal temperatures and potential snow across much of the country.

The National Weather Service warns that the "polar vortex," an area of cold air typically around the Arctic, could expand southward this Thanksgiving week, creating winter-like conditions from Seattle to Dallas and across to Chicago. This cold snap, combined with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and La Niña, is expected to drive "cooler than normal temperatures" across the Central and Northern U.S.

"Below normal temperatures are favored for the Central and Northern U.S., including northern parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Plains, parts of Texas, and the interior Mid-Atlantic," the NWS reported.

Record Travel Meets Extreme Weather

The frigid temperatures coincide with what AAA projects will be record holiday traffic. Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to embark on Thanksgiving road trips, while the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) anticipates screening an estimated 17.8 million air travelers from Tuesday through Sunday. Sunday is predicted to be the busiest air travel day of the holiday period.

"The extreme weather may start as early as Tuesday, with spatial coverage and confidence increasing during the Nov 26-30 period," the NWS stated.

Regional Weather Breakdown

Tuesday and Wednesday

Early in the week, travelers should expect:

• A winter storm watch for North Dakota and Minnesota, where 3 to 9 inches of snow may fall
• Rain along the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston
• Snow beginning to fall across much of Michigan on Wednesday
• Fog potentially affecting morning commutes and flights in various regions

Thanksgiving Day

On Thanksgiving itself, the lake-effect snow machine will turn on, bringing significant snow to the downwind side of the Great Lakes:

• Winter storm watches in place for areas like Orchard Park, New York (just south of Buffalo)
• More than 6 inches of snow possible with wind gusts up to 45 mph
• Potential for whiteout conditions in localized areas
• Rain and mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest

Friday Through Sunday

The weather pattern remains active throughout the weekend:

• A new storm system moving cross-country from the Pacific Northwest
• Snow spreading from the Plains (Dakotas to northern Missouri) on Friday
• Rain possible from Missouri to Louisiana, while snow affects areas from Illinois to Michigan
• Rain expected on much of the East Coast by Sunday afternoon and evening
• Potential for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the South

Travel Tips for Thanksgiving Week

With challenging weather conditions expected, travelers should:

1. Check forecasts frequently: Weather conditions can change rapidly, especially with lake-effect snow.
2. Allow extra time: Plan for potential delays on roads and at airports.
3. Prepare for winter driving: If driving in snow-prone areas, ensure your vehicle has winter tires, pack emergency supplies, and know alternative routes.
4. Monitor flight status: Check with your airline for potential delays or cancellations.
5. Consider travel days: If possible, travel earlier in the week or wait until after the weekend to avoid the worst conditions.

The Science Behind the Cold Snap

While polar vortex excursions are a natural winter phenomenon, scientists are investigating whether climate change is making them more common.

"Disruption of the Stratospheric polar vortex is a natural process, it happens almost every or every few winters," Tampa Bay meteorologist Jeff Berardelli noted. "Scientists are 'investigating how climate change/Arctic Amplification etc… factors in and IF it is making them more common.'"

As you prepare for your Thanksgiving travels, stay informed about the evolving weather conditions and prioritize safety over schedules when necessary.